Synopsis
The crisis of Oromia can be summed up in a single, stark sentence: Oromia’s greatest hazard is its own wealth. The sheer abundance of its resources has drawn in competing forces, each vying for control. This relentless scramble has made the realization of Oromia’s self-determination—a cause championed for decades—an even more daunting challenge. Today, the interplay of ongoing conflicts, coupled with the misguided aspirations of Ethiopia’s leadership, is reshaping political alliances. A new power axis is emerging, signaling the formation of a modern-day Abyssinia.
The Changing Conflict Landscape and Its Impact on Oromia
Ethiopia has been engulfed in successive waves of conflict in recent years, each playing a critical role in this unfolding transformation. The Tigray War (2020–2022), the ongoing Amhara conflict nearly two years, and the persistent conflict in Oromia since 2019 have all contributed to the erosion of the old order and the birth of new alignments.
At the center of these upheavals is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whose erratic governance and miscalculations have worsened every major conflict. His sidekick in Oromia, President Shimelis Abdissa, has also played a crucial role in this turmoil. Together, their handling of both regional and federal affairs has not only deepened Ethiopia’s political crisis but has also allowed false narratives to flourish.
One of the most insidious of these is the deliberate distortion of “Oromummaa.” Just as terms like Amaraanet (Amhara identity) and Tigrawiinet (Tigrayan identity) naturally express national belonging, Oromummaa is simply the Oromo people’s self-definition—akin to saying American or British. Yet, the Amhara elite weaponized this identity, twisting its meaning to serve their political ends in anti-Oromo rhetoric. They sought to equate Oromummaa with a new “Oromo Hegemony,” conveniently overlooking the century-long dominance of Amhara rule and the more recent era of Tigrayan dominance.
This distortion was made easier by Abiy Ahmed and Shimelis Abdissa’s own opportunistic rhetoric. Both men claimed credit for the 2014–2018 Oromo uprising, positioning themselves as the fruits of and vanguard of the struggle. They even went so far as to declare that the Oromo people were now independent, creating an illusion of self-rule when, in reality, Oromia remained under relentless state control and military repression—another twist in pushing the Qeerroo & Qarree Oromo youths behind the 2014–2018 uprising to pick arms and join the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
A related—yet perhaps even more insidious—false narrative is the notion of an “Oromo government.” This label was strategically coined, primarily by Amhara political elites, as a tool to delegitimize the Abiy Ahmed administration. The intent was clear: to portray Abiy’s rule as an Oromo-dominated regime and, in doing so, to justify opposition to his government as a necessary resistance against what opponents describe as “Oromo hegemony” often linking the government to the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Yet the reality on the ground tells an entirely different story.
Under Abiy Ahmed’s rule, Oromia has faced some of its harshest repression in recent history. The region has been subjected to sustained military operations, political crackdowns, and the systematic dismantling of its institutions. The irony is unmistakable—while Oromia suffers under this administration, the same Amhara elite that now denounces Abiy once hailed him as a messianic leader during the Tigray War. Their shift in allegiance was not driven by principle but by pragmatism: their disappointment in Abiy Ahmed stems not from his governance failures, but from his inability to deliver on their primary demand—the total military annihilation of the TPLF.
Now, in a deeply ironic twist, those who once celebrated Abiy as their champion have turned against him, not because of a newfound commitment to democracy, but because he failed to achieve their ultimate goal—the absolute defeat of Tigray. Instead of abandoning their ambitions, they are now forging new alliances with the very forces they once sought to obliterate—all in pursuit of a common objective: access to Oromia’s wealth.
For Oromia, the implications are profound. What was once an internal struggle for self-determination is now rapidly evolving into a broader battle against an emerging neo-Abyssinian coalition. Yet, tragically, many in Oromia remain unaware of this shifting reality, as their focus is still consumed by internal divisions and localized power struggles.
The Emergence of a New Abyssinia
A new political configuration is taking shape—one that seeks to reassert imperial-era hegemony under a modern guise. This emerging neo-Abyssinian bloc is composed of three primary entities, each with distinct motivations but a shared end goal: the exploitation of Oromia’s resources.
Entity No. 1 – The Old Guard in New Clothing
This entity retains the façade of a liberation front, despite long having abandoned its original purpose. It is an entity that not only liberated itself but also presided over the Ethiopian empire for 27 uninterrupted years.
One might wonder: why does it still cling to the label of a liberation front? The answer lies in its sinister utility. By maintaining this guise, it obscures its true intentions—ensuring that it retains control over the economic arteries of Ethiopia, particularly those that run through Oromia. This entity is not merely interested in political influence; it is economically entrenched within the system, making the exploitation of Oromia’s resources its priority.
Entity No. 2 – The Expansionist Force
The second entity is actively engaged in a territorial expansion campaign, systematically laying claim to Oromia’s lands under the guise of historical entitlement often veiled with the motto of “preserving Ethiopia”. Their rhetoric is laced with revisionist mythology, portraying Oromia as a land they have always inhabited, despite glaring contradictions in historical and demographic realities.
Their expansionist ambitions have been enabled, in part, by the sheer dysfunction of the Oromia regional administration—an entity that exists in name only. The so-called “government” of Oromia lacks the institutional strength or autonomy to protect its own lands, making it easy prey for encroachment. At times the administration seems to play a foolish and self inflicting game like catching a lion with a jackal in their hopeless battle with the OLA.
For this entity, the survival of its own political and economic base is inextricably linked to the control of Oromia under the mantra of one Ethiopia. Without it, their ambitions would collapse under their own weight.
Entity No. 3 – The Aspirant ‘Singapore of Africa’
The third entity is perhaps the most audacious in its aspirations. For over three decades, its leadership has harbored a singular dream—to transform its domain into a ‘Singapore of Africa’ by siphoning off the wealth of Ethiopia.
Unlike the other two entities, this one has never invested in institution-building, education, or sustainable development. Instead, its full-time profession is militarization—an all-consuming endeavor that sees chaos as opportunity. Its modus operandi is simple: engineer instability across the Horn of Africa in the hopes that, amid the disorder, fortunes will rain down from the skies.
Historically, its focus has been on Ethiopia as a whole. However, with the evolving geopolitical landscape, this entity’s ambitions are now narrowing in on Oromia. The failed dream of turning Ethiopia into its personal economic playground is now being refashioned into a new mission—to extract wealth from Oromia itself.
Oromia at the Crossroads
Oromia now stands at a pivotal juncture. The battle for self-determination is no longer just an internal struggle; it is increasingly shaped by external forces coalescing around a new neo-Abyssinian project. Yet, paradoxically, many within Oromia remain preoccupied with internal disputes, failing to recognize the broader game at play.
The stakes have never been higher for Oromia. The question that looms over its future is stark: Will it remain fragmented by internal divisions, consumed by infighting, and unable to mount a unified front? Or will it rise to confront the existential threat posed by the emerging neo-Abyssinian coalition? The answer to this question will determine not just the fate of Oromia, but the broader political landscape of the region in the years to come.
This moment should serve as a wake-up call for Oromo politicians—many of whom fail to see beyond their immediate ambitions. Too many are fixated on personal political gain, scrambling for ministerial positions within a system that has actively worked against Oromia’s interests. Their political myopia prevents them from grasping the bigger picture—a coordinated effort to dismantle Oromia’s agency and plunder its resources. Instead of positioning themselves as defenders of Oromo interests, they have become mere pawns in a grander geopolitical game.
However, the greatest burden of responsibility lies with the Prosperity Party (PP) government—the chief architect of the current political quagmire. Through a series of disastrous miscalculations, Abiy Ahmed’s administration has not only deepened Ethiopia’s political crisis but has also facilitated the realignment of power blocs against Oromia. While I am reluctant to suggest that the PP can still salvage itself, I would, at the very least, call upon them to make a relatively honorable exit—one that does not plunge the country into further chaos and destruction.
At a minimum, the PP should take two decisive actions before its inevitable demise:
- Address the Oromo Questions in good faith—something that should have been their priority when they assumed power but has instead been manipulated and ignored.
- Strive to resolve internal conflicts, at the very least, to the point of a ceasefire to avert total state collapse—an outcome that could further destabilize an already fragile security landscape and plunge it into outright anarchy.
Failure to do this will only compound the coming chaos, making a bad situation infinitely worse. If they will not act to save themselves, they should at least act to minimize the damage they have inflicted upon the empire state.
The Oromo political parties (OLF and OFC) must also recognize the gravity of the moment. If there was ever a time to set aside internal disputes, that time is now. Defer your battles for ministerial positions until after self-determination is achieved. Put the cause before yourself—if stepping aside serves the Oromo struggle better than holding on to power, then duty demands that choice. Fighting over governance before achieving sovereignty is not only premature but self-defeating. Do not act as if the days of self-rule have already arrived—they haven’t. The same counsel applies to party members and activists alike who are dedicated to the Oromo cause.
The reality is clear: Oromia’s struggle is not yet over. The focus must shift from internal wrangling to strategic unity, for only a strong and unified front can withstand the forces converging against it.
Conclusion
Oromia stands at a defining moment. The forces working against its self-determination are no longer acting in isolation; they are forming a new Abyssinian bloc, unified by a singular objective—to control Oromia’s wealth and dictate its future. Yet, the greatest risk does not come from external adversaries alone but from within—political divisions, short-sighted ambitions, and an inability to recognize the urgency of the moment.
If Oromia is to chart its own destiny, unity and strategic focus must replace internal discord. Oromo political actors must wake up to the scale of the challenge before them and understand that self-determination remains unfinished business. The question is no longer whether Oromia has the right to decide its own future, but whether it has the collective resolve to fight for it.
History is being written in real time. Will Oromia rise to claim its rightful place, or will it allow others to decide its fate? The answer will not be found in words, but in the actions taken today.
Related References
- Decoding Prosperity Party Regime’s Farcical Four-Day Meeting on Oromia
- Why the Oromia Opposition Parties Never Ever Learn
- The Unshakable Truth: Finfinnee is an Oromo City
- To the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission: You Are Wasting Your Time and Everyone Else’s
- Armed Struggle Is the Only Path to Emancipation for the Oromo People
- The Ethiopia Flag is a Sign of Neo-Colonialism, Not Unity
- ETHIOPIA WILL NEVER BE AT PEACE WITHOUT RESOLVING THE OROMO QUESTIONS
