Ethiopia's Elites Crisis: Fragmentation, Failure, and the Path to Relevance

Excerpt

Ethiopia’s elites crisis runs deeper than disunity—it is a collapse of legitimacy. Fragmented, distrusted, and internally divided, no elite figure today commands a unified mandate. Peace will remain a mirage until the elites reconcile with their own constituencies and confront the vertical fractures within. Without grassroots credibility, national dialogue is empty performance—and irrelevance is the best they can hope for.

Introduction

Calling for peace is always a noble act. However, the recent virtual gathering under the banner of “The Grand Protest Demonstration”, held earlier this month on Reyot Media [1] rings hollow. Beneath the slogans lies a troubling superficiality—one that masks deeper fractures in Ethiopia’s political landscape. Two glaring contradictions emerge:

1. A deliberate disregard for the roots and complexities of Ethiopia’s conflicts, and the fundamentally divergent interpretations of “peace” among the country’s nations and nationalities.
2. A paradox: while some factions gear up for military domination, others assemble to chant peace slogans—disorganized, demoralized, and seemingly prepared for capitulation.

This article does not seek to dissect the geopolitical agendas behind these contradictions. Rather, it interrogates the credibility, composition, and collapse of Ethiopia’s political elites. Who are they? Whom do they represent? And why has their relevance deteriorated so profoundly?

Today, Ethiopia’s elites crisis is defined by detachment and distrust. Most political elites now resemble nomads without a constituency—figures too disconnected from their base to face them without fear of ridicule or backlash. This alienation compels a critical examination of how Ethiopia’s multigenerational elite has forfeited both legitimacy and influence.

Conflicting Dreams and the Collapse of Elite Influence

The Ethiopia of the 1960s through the 1980s offered a historical window for elites to reimagine the nation’s future and address its foundational injustices. Moments of profound rupture—1974 and 1991—provided opportunities for transformation. Instead, they were squandered.

Today, the traditional elite-driven model of statecraft has collapsed. It has been replaced by a volatile mix of actors: millions of disenfranchised citizens with conflicting visions, armed with both modern assault rifles and instant communication tools that have displaced the elite’s monopoly on information and influence.

Ethiopia has repeatedly approached inflection points where reconciliation seemed possible. Yet, the elites steering those moments lacked the ideological will to depart from the status quo. The result? A permanently fractured national imagination.

This condition is aptly described by Professor Merera Gudina’s prescient book, Conflicting Dreams (የሚጋጩ ህልሞች), written before today’s divisions hardened into irreconcilable contradictions. Had Ethiopia’s elites grasped the full depth of these clashing worldviews, they might have avoided steering the nation’s already storm-battered ship without compass or map.

At the heart of the elites crisis are two unyielding narratives:

• One rooted in the refusal of historically dominant groups to relinquish inherited privileges.
• The other anchored in the resistance of historically marginalized communities to accept an unjust and imposed status quo.

These diverging dreams trace back to Menelik II’s imperial conquests, which forcibly incorporated self-governing indigenous populations into a centralized empire. The modern Ethiopian state was born through coercion—not consensus—laying the groundwork for enduring contestations over power, identity, and legitimacy.

Fragmentation Within: The Vertical Crisis of Nations

The crisis of elites is not only about ethnic division (horizontal fragmentation); it is also about disintegration within ethnic communities themselves—a vertical collapse of internal cohesion.

Today’s political landscape is marked by an explosion of factions—some armed, some political, many contradictory. Crucially, no single elite figure commands universal respect, even within their own national group, let alone across Ethiopia.

Consider Oromia. The political field is divided among fractured entities: the “Hilton OLF” and “Gulallee OLF” factions, splintered armed groups like Horo Gudru OLA, Central Oromia OLA, and even exiled diaspora micro-groups. Once part of a unified OLF vision, they now compete in a chaotic marketplace of claims and accusations. Government coercion has further deepened the fragmentation, even targeting stable opposition forces like the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) through what critics describe as a “21st-century slave trade.”

The Amhara political arena fares no better. The rise of Amhara nationalism has birthed fragmented militant groups—Gojjam Fano, Gondar Fano, Shewa Fano—often at odds with each other over ideology, allegiance, and perceived betrayals. Former ANDM elites, now rebranded under the Prosperity Party, add to the confusion, aligning with centralized power for survival rather than vision.

Even Tigray, once known for its disciplined political machinery under the TPLF, is now split between the Debretsion faction, the Getachew Reda camp, and rising actors like Tadesse Werede, with polarizing diaspora voices widening the fissures.

This internal fragmentation—within nations and nationalities—has produced an elite class that is not only illegitimate in the eyes of the broader public but also powerless to unify their own camps, let alone the nation.

Reclaiming Relevance: Where Must the Elites Begin?

Before Ethiopia’s elites can credibly engage in national dialogue, they must first resolve the crises within their own constituencies. This vertical repair is non-negotiable.

A credible path forward requires:

• Reconciliation among armed and peaceful opposition forces within each nation.
• Unification of political strategies and reestablishment of internal trust.

Building legitimacy from below, through consensus—not coercion.

Take Oromia as a case study. Only when OLF factions, OLA units, and peaceful actors create a coherent platform can they engage across ethnic lines with purpose. The same imperative holds true in Amhara, Tigray, and other regions.

Yet, most elites evade this difficult task. Instead of confronting local disunity, they seek media exposure and national platforms—offering grand plans for a country that no longer grants them trust. This is the essence of Ethiopia’s elites crisis: a pursuit of influence without legitimacy, and symbolism without substance.

Rejecting Shortcuts: The Hard Work Ahead

Superficial peace summits, unifying slogans, and political theatrics cannot substitute for real structural engagement. These distractions merely defer the inevitable and deepen public cynicism.

Ethiopia is running out of road.

The elite class must abandon fantasy and roll up its sleeves. Relevance can only be restored by:

• Building trust from the grassroots upward.
• Bridging ideological divides within factions.

Offering a concrete and inclusive political roadmap. In short, the only exit from Ethiopia’s elites crisis is through genuine reconciliation and visionary leadership—not nostalgia, not denial, and not expediency.

The alternative is not just irrelevance. It is disintegration.

References

1. ጦርነት ይቁም! አገዛዝ ያብቃ! ሰላም ይምጣ! | ታላቅ የተቃውሞ ትእይንተህዝብ በቀጥታ ስርጭት!, 7 Jun 2025, Reyot Media YouTube Channel.