The Politics of Spite—How Oromia’s Foundations Expose the Empty Ambitions of a Troubled Region
Excerpt
Oromia now faces a widening expansionist push—driven by local opportunists, reinforced by external actors, and carried along by a region long caught up in the politics of spite that has defined the Horn. These forces promote territorial fantasies that collapse under scrutiny. The article argues that only a free, self-determined Oromia can break this cycle, restoring stability to the Horn and creating the conditions for a genuine synergy of prosperity with its neighbors.
Preface—Clarity Before Contention
Before entering the complexities of this analysis, clarity is necessary. We write not as politicians chasing influence, but as scholars committed to intellectual honesty. We refuse the political habit of dodging inconvenient truths. A problem defined with clarity is already half solved.
Our academic creed is simple:
Education must enlighten, not obscure. It must refine perception, dissolve ignorance, and serve humanity.
We do not use our education for manipulation or falsehoods. Our purpose is to define problems precisely and follow the truth where it leads.
We are proud Oromos, and we defend the Oromo Cause unapologetically—not tribally, not blindly, and not at the expense of truth.
This is precisely why we oppose the PP regime, which acts in the name of Oromos while committing grotesque crimes against Oromos and others alike.
We hold no hostility toward groups with legitimate aspirations. Our objections arise only where demands become illegitimate—most notably, expansionist claims over Oromo land and rights.
Critique, correction, and thoughtful feedback are always welcome. Insolence in place of argument, however, is not.
This preface establishes the ethical foundation on which the following analysis stands.
The Parable of the Burning Castle of the Plains
On a wide, fertile plain stood a grand toy castle that generations of children had built. It wasn’t the tallest or the most ornamented, but it was the only one built with real foundations—stones from the land itself, arranged with care and belonging. Children from neighboring yards watched it constantly. Some envied it. Some wanted to own it. Some wished it would collapse simply because they didn’t build it.
One day, a boy who once claimed dominion over the playground rallied the disgruntled: “If we can’t control it, let’s burn it.” Others joined—one seeking old territory, one chasing fantasies of past greatness, one wanting to please distant spectators, one who enjoyed destruction for its own sake. They gathered dry grass and broken twigs and set the castle on fire, cheering as flames rose, convinced that its fall would crown them victors.
But they forgot a simple law of the earth: Structures rooted in truth do not burn easily. The outer walls charred, the paint peeled—yet the foundations held. What did collapse, however, were the flimsy forts the vandals themselves had built. They burned faster than the castle they tried to destroy. When the smoke cleared, the grand structure still stood—scarred but firm—while the plotters sat among ashes, each blaming the other for the ruin.
The elders watching from afar shook their heads: “Those who burn what is not theirs only destroy their own. Those who defend what is theirs endure every flame.”
The Parable Meets the Present
The parable is not decorative fiction; it is a working map of the Horn of Africa. Those circling Oromia—lighting political fires out of bitterness, insecurity, or opportunism—behave exactly like the children who tried to burn a castle whose foundations they never understood. The Horn remains one of the most intellectually fragile regions in the world when it comes to governance.
And like in the parable, actors across this region strike matches around a castle they cannot own—hoping the flames will weaken the people who rightfully do. Spite substitutes strategy. Narrative replaces fact. Alliances form from irritation rather than principle.
To understand the pressures converging on Oromia, we must widen the lens and map the geopolitical, historical, and regional forces that animate these ambitions.
The Horn's Geopolitics vis-à-vis Oromia
No analysis of Oromia’s predicament is complete without acknowledging the geopolitical landscape that surrounds it. Every troubled region in the world tends to attract one or more geopolitical protagonists—external powers that destabilize, manipulate, or micromanage events to secure influence, resources, or strategic advantage.
The Horn of Africa, with its weak institutions, fragmented authority, and unresolved territorial questions, offers these actors an unusually low-cost arena for intervention. Beyond its internal fractures, the Horn occupies one of the most strategically significant corridors on the planet: the Red Sea–Gulf nexus, a gateway for global trade routes, energy flows, and military positioning.
It is therefore unsurprising that Gulf states, major world powers, and rival regional actors compete fiercely for influence in Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea, and the Red Sea corridor [1,2].
1. The UAE Factor
Among these players, the UAE stands out as an especially assertive geopolitical protagonist [3,4]. It has pursued a multifaceted strategy across the region: funding factions, brokering deals, building port networks, deploying drones, and cultivating military ties.
In Ethiopia, the UAE has been a central external pillar of the Abiy Ahmed – PP regime—from financing aspects of the Tigray war, to securing privileged access to critical resources inside Oromia, including gold mining concessions and vast agricultural tracts.
2. Egypt’s Desperation
Egypt, humiliated by losing its historical grip over the Nile, has entered a phase of theatrical hostility. The inauguration of the GERD last September—a feat Ethiopia achieved through engineering resilience and political will—shattered Cairo’s illusion of hydro-imperial permanence [5].
Instead of recalibrating to a new geopolitical reality or pursuing a rational diplomatic path, Egypt has devolved into performative statecraft. It now rolls out red carpets for the leaders of Eritrea and Somalia, not in the spirit of cooperation, but as deliberate spectacle—a petty attempt to build any coalition that can “get at Ethiopia.”
This is foreign policy reduced to emotional retaliation: alliances of spite, symbolic posturing, and psychological self-comfort. Egypt is not seeking solutions or stability. It is seeking leverage that embarrasses Ethiopia, even when such tactics undermine long-term regional peace.
A mature diplomatic route exists. Egypt refuses to take it.
The Lesson is Clear
Geopolitics is not a backdrop—it is one of the engines of Ethiopia’s instability. Internal conflicts cannot be analyzed in isolation. External actors often amplify, prolong, or even manufacture instability because disorder serves geopolitical interests. Chaos weakens domestic governments, creates dependency, opens access to ports and resources, and sidelines competing powers.
For Oromia, these interventions are not abstract. They shape security realities, distort federal calculations, embolden local expansionists, and entrench the PP regime’s coercive apparatus. The UAE’s involvement, in particular, has had direct and multidimensional consequences for Oromia’s land, resources, and political landscape—making geopolitics a central, not peripheral, part of Oromia’s struggle.
Amhara Expansionism—From Abyssinian Empire to Fano Militancy
Amhara expansionist claims today—voiced loudly by Fano [6] and amplified by segments of the Amhara elite [7,8,9]—are not new ambitions. They are the continuation of Abyssinian imperial expansion as Menelik’s conquest of the south that was assisted by European powers and firearms [10,11,12,13].
The imperial state advanced through a civilizing myth—the claim that Abyssinia had a divine mandate to annex, rule, tax, and culturally overwrite neighboring peoples.
Three historical continuities define this expansionist worldview:
1. The Abyssinian Doctrine of Civilizational Superiority
For over a century, Abyssinian elites cast themselves as the “core civilization,” portraying Oromo, Sidama, Somali, Afar, Wolayita, Agaw, and others as peripheral peoples to be absorbed or disciplined. This ideological seed still shapes Fano rhetoric today: the belief that territory held by others is “historically ours” simply because the empire once occupied it.
It goes without saying that these nations possess their own rich histories, identities, and civilizational depth.
2. Imperial Cartography as Political Theology
Menelik’s expansion redrew boundaries violently, uprooting Oromo systems of governance, displacing communities, and imposing new administrative geographies. These boundaries later became the basis for modern Abyssinian territorial claims—claims that deliberately ignore indigenous habitation and pre-colonial ownership.
3. The Continuation Through Amhara Fano
Amhara Fano is not an anomaly; it is the revival of Abyssinian frontier militias historically used to occupy and pacify non-Amhara regions. Their adoption of the imperial vocabulary of “restoration,” "ያባቶቻችን ዕርስት", “historical land,” and “rightful return” [8] reveals the direct lineage between Abyssinian imperial ideology and modern militarized expansionism.
Amhara Fano is the rebranded militia arm of an old imperial dream struggling not to die.
But imperial dreams collapse when confronted by rooted realities—and Oromia’s rootedness is precisely what unsettles them.
The Somali Region's Opportunistic Expansion Into Oromia
Let us make this clean and precise: this is an old ambition repackaged with new tactics. Somalia, the Republic, is no longer engaged in open territorial claims as it was before the 1978 war with Ethiopia. That era of overt irredentism has faded—not because the ideology died, but because the Somali Republic now relies on a proxy front: the Somali Region inside Ethiopia.
It is within this internal arena that the most aggressive actions are unfolding. The Somali Region’s activists, elites, and political operators are not reclaiming lost Somali land. They are not correcting a historical injustice. They are not pursuing any legitimate grievance grounded in law, identity, or history.
Instead, they are:
- expanding opportunistically into fertile Oromo land,
- acting as silent agents of long-term Somali unification hopes,
- exploiting the deep weakness of the PP regime,
- building leverage against a collapsing Ethiopian state,
- manipulating demographic shifts and administrative boundaries, and
- fueling fantasies that have no historical, ethnic, or legal basis whatsoever.
This is where Adem Farah and the Somali Region’s PP elites emerge as pivotal actors. Their political calculus is straightforward: weaponize PP’s fragility, amplify expansionist ambitions, and quietly push the border westward into Oromia under the guise of federal alignment.
The result is a growing fiction—a claim to Oromo land dressed in the rhetoric of lost ownership but rooted entirely in scarcity, political ambition, and opportunism, not history. Their claim to any part of Oromia is pure invention. And like all inventions sustained by desperation, it grows louder the weaker the federal center becomes.
For the most part, these ambitions were tacitly nurtured by the EPRDF’s deliberate divide-and-rule strategy. The most striking example was the unprecedented and internationally unheard-of “loaning” of the Oromo city of Jijigaa to the Somali Region until Godee was developed—an anomaly that defied every principle of territorial integrity.
Likewise, the constitutional limbo imposed on Dirre Dhawa, now fueling unnecessary tension [15] between Oromia and the Somali Region, and the recent encroachments into multiple districts of Oromia—including the seizure of Moyale last May [16,17]—fit squarely into this pattern.
What is even more troubling is the silence of PM Abiy Ahmed and the nominal president of Oromia, Shimelis Abdissa [18,19], who have offered not a single word regarding the Oromo territories absorbed by the Somali Region.
To illustrate how deeply the politics of spite against Oromia runs, one need only glance at the comical narratives circulating across social media, where unlikely actors eagerly join this circus of desperation. A Somali commentator recently declared, “Finfinnee belongs to Amhara,” a claim so detached from history, demography, and political reality that it reads like satire. Yet fantasies, when weaponised, rarely remain harmless.
The same dynamic plays out in the Amhara digital media ecosystem, which has seized on the Dirre Dhawa issue as if it were a political festival. Somali commentators are invited with carefully engineered questions, creating a tacit bargain: “Help us rewrite the Finfinnee narrative, and we will echo your claims over Dire Dawa.”
The cynical choreography of these exchanges reveals not a shared future among these regions, but a mutual descent into a race of retaliatory storytelling—the purest expression of the politics of spite that has long defined the Horn’s political imagination.
The irony is staggering: Amhara expansionists and Somali opportunists now humming the same tune for no purpose other than antagonizing Oromia. Political degeneracy has a remarkable ability to forge absurd alliances. Who would have imagined Somalis—who only yesterday derided Amharas as “Habash”—now singing in perfect harmony with them?
Spite has become the political currency of the day in a landscape where intellectual deficiency is widespread.
PP Regime's Irredentism and the Politics of Betrayal
Now we arrive at the darkest corner of the entire drama. The Ethiopian PP regime is the only force in the region engaged in actual, textbook irredentism. Its claim that Eritrea’s secession was a “mistake,” and that Ethiopia somehow “deserves” the port of Assab, is nothing less than dangerous historical revisionism. Eritrea’s independence was:
- voluntary,
- internationally recognized,
- confirmed by referendum, and
- formally accepted by Ethiopia.
To attempt to claw back that past is not patriotism—it is desperation masquerading as nationalism. PP’s delusion has already poisoned Ethiopia’s diplomatic posture. The recent Ethiopia–Somalia fallout over port politics in connection with the now dead MoU with Somaliland is one symptom.
Eritrea’s leader, sensing opportunism, now makes calculated regional tours—often flown in on jets supplied by hosts hungry for spectacle—knowing full well that PP’s confusion creates openings for manipulation.
But the deeper, darker truth lies elsewhere. PP is not merely revisionist regarding Eritrea. It is also weaponizing expansionist forces within Ethiopia itself—both northern (Amhara Fano) and eastern (Somali Region)—as proxy instruments against Oromia whenever it suits the regime’s survival calculations.
- They wink at Amhara Fano’s territorial fantasies. Despite Amhara Fano’s abysmal record, the PP regime’s inexplicable reluctance to designate Amhara Fano as a terrorist organization is telling [20].
- They wink at Somali Region encroachments.
- They wink at every destabilizing ambition if it serves one purpose: to weaken Oromia and block OLF-OLA at any cost.
PP understands a reality they dare not say out loud: If Oromia achieves genuine freedom through OLF-OLA, the PP regime collapses. Their power evaporates the moment the Oromo question is answered with justice. So they enable every enemy of Oromia—foreign or domestic—feeding the fire and hoping that chaos will contain Oromo aspirations.
Tell us this is not treason.
A regime that calls itself “Oromo-led” while bleeding Oromia from every direction—militarily, politically, demographically, and diplomatically—violates every test of legitimacy, morality, and constitutional duty.
We have no space in this necessarily long article to even begin summarizing the grotesque crimes the PP regime has committed—and continues to commit —against the Oromo people: thousands of homes burned to ash, some with their occupants still inside; countless extra-judicial killings carried out in public squares, open fields, and under the cover of darkness. Many of these killings were perpetrated by a death squad deliberately instituted by the regime and later exposed by Reuters [21,22].
Even more disturbing are the mega-crimes revealed by a member of the PP establishment itself, Obbo Taye Dandaha, now imprisoned for truth-telling [23,24]. Among the thousands of victims, the names of peace-bearers stand as haunting symbols: the fourteen Karrayyuu Abbaa Gadaas, Haacaaluu Hundeessa, Battee Urgeessaa, Abduljabbar Hussein, and many others.
In this murky environment, one glaring question repeatedly rises to the surface: Why did the Oromia administration disarm the entire population of Oromia—even confiscating and burning traditional sticks—thereby exposing border communities to attacks from expansionist forces in the west, north, east, and southeast?
This is not an argument advocating violence; it is a recognition of the staggering power imbalance created by selective disarmament. Civilians in Amhara, Tigray, Afar, and Somali regions remain fully armed, while communities in Oromia, deprived of even symbolic tools of self-protection, face aggression with no regional security structure willing to defend them—only to repress them.
The answer to this question is already well understood by the public: the Oromia administration, fixated on clinging to power, has lost all trust in its own people—precisely because those people overwhelmingly support the OLF-OLA. An OLF-OLA victory signals the end of the PP regime, and that fear has driven the administration to disarm its own population while leaving them exposed to every external threat converging on Oromia.
This is not leadership; it is betrayal dressed in administrative titles. History will judge the president of Oromia for the treasonous acts committed against the very people he swore to protect. And history will judge the Caffee Oromia as well—for abdicating their constitutional duties, for remaining silent when they were obligated to stand as guardians of Oromia’s rights and dignity [25,26].
The complexity of this web is staggering—not for the faint-hearted, and certainly not for those who fear seeing power laid bare in its darkest, most cynical form.
The Old Architect of Today’s Time Bomb—The TPLF
No account of the region’s current crisis is complete without addressing the role of the TPLF, the dominant force at the helm of the EPRDF regime for twenty-seven years. Today, the TPLF finds itself suffering from the very political fractures and territorial distortions it engineered—an illustration of historical irony so sharp it borders on self-indictment.
To be fair, the TPLF-led EPRDF did implement economic development policies that produced measurable growth, though heavily centralized, unevenly distributed, and often self-serving. They also institutionalized a multinational federal framework—in name more than practice. But whatever credit is due in those domains is eclipsed by their catastrophic record on human rights, particularly against the Oromo people, a brutality that fueled the nationwide Oromo Protest uprising that eventually ended their rule in 2018.
Yet the most enduring—and dangerous—legacy of the TPLF lies elsewhere. Their cavalier approach to Oromo territorial integrity, trading away Oromo lands around the entire circumference of Oromia to appease allies, weaken adversaries, and execute a classic divide-and-rule strategy, laid the groundwork for the expansionist claims now destabilizing the country. By redrawing boundaries for political convenience, the TPLF emboldened expansionists and created long-term grievances that no successor regime could easily defuse.
The administration that came to power in 2018 promised—at least rhetorically—to address the injustices of the EPRDF era and those predating it. But instead of correcting these structural distortions, the PP regime chose the familiar comfort of inherited tactics. Rather than dismantling the mechanisms that produced the crisis, PP doubled down on them—reviving old maps, reinforcing old hostilities, and adding new layers of territorial and political confusion.
This comes as no surprise. The core members of today’s Oromia Prosperity Party are, after all, the rebranded OPDO wing of the EPRDF—actors who once served as the TPLF’s extension arm in Oromia, administering its misgovernance and enforcing its brutalities. The same political class that enabled the old system has now been elevated to real power, carrying forward the same habits, the same worldview, and the same structural approach to controlling Oromia.
In effect, PP did not break with the EPRDF legacy; it perfected it, ensuring that the very machinery of oppression and territorial distortion that once served the TPLF continues to operate under a new name. Furthermore, it is the Ethiopian state’s enduring habit: not solving problems, but stacking new crises on top of old ones.
We are now living inside that layered catastrophe—one whose foundations were poured during the TPLF’s reign, whose walls were reinforced by the PP regime, and whose flames are fanned by expansionists who learned from the very playbook TPLF authored.
The tragic irony is complete: the TPLF, once the architect, now finds itself the victim of the very system it designed
One Truth, Many Motives
Egypt: hydro-hegemonic spite
Eritrea: port insecurity, strategic opportunism, and a long-standing reliance on Ethiopia’s instability as political currency
Somalia: see Somali Region
Somali Region: demographic leverage and expansion
Amhara Fano: imperial nostalgia and colonial continuity with ideology and expansionism with the subtle support of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and Amhara elites, domestic and diaspora, engaged in revisionist campaigns and disinformation
PP Regime: irredentism; internal civil wars of power retention; regional proxy manipulation against Oromia
UAE: extraction and influence via managed instability
Ethiopia: both aggressor (toward Eritrea) and victim (of Egypt) All converge on one pressure point: Oromia.
The Exception: OLF-OLA
Amid all this noise, one actor stands apart: OLF-OLA. And yes—the OLF-OLA is deliberately left out of this alliance of opportunists.
The OLF-OLA remains a central actor in Oromia’s political landscape, both militarily and symbolically. Unlike several regional forces whose agendas include expansionist or revisionist ambitions, OLF-OLA’s stated objectives focus on Oromo self-determination and the protection of communities affected by regional, federal, or proxy violence.
However, an analytically complete assessment requires acknowledging both strengths and constraints:
Strengths:
- strong grassroots legitimacy particularly in regions affected by state violence,
- organizational adaptability enabling survival against a larger state military,
- a narrative aligned with long-standing Oromo political demands.
Constraints:
- limited political coordination and advocacy within key diaspora communities—where mobilization and narrative-shaping matter most—risks slowing down the movement’s external momentum and reducing its strategic reach,
- limited diplomatic presence reduces international understanding of its positions,
- prolonged conflict risks entrenching militarized political culture even among sympathetic communities.
These constraints do not diminish OLF-OLA’s centrality; rather, they underscore the need for structured political engagement. Any durable peace or security framework in Oromia will need to integrate OLF-OLA’s political constituency and address the grievances that fuel its support base. Regardless of other debates surrounding the conflict, it is important to emphasize the principles that distinguish the cause OLF-OLA claims to represent:
- It is not an expansionist movement.
- It is not driven by covetous territorial ambitions.
- It does not rely on revisionist or delusional historical narratives.
- It asserts no claim over territories that are not Oromo by history, identity, or lived reality.
OLF-OLA’s position is the opposite of every other regional player: “We fight for what is ours—nothing more, nothing less.” This moral posture is precisely what terrifies the expansionists. Because they cannot mirror it. They cannot claim it. And they cannot destroy it. It stands fundamentally apart because its struggle aligns with an immutable truth.
The Immutable Truth
This is what the vandals in the parable never understood: you cannot burn something that is rooted in truth. That fundamental truth is the dignity, rights, and territorial integrity of a people defending what is theirs.
Oromia’s claims are not inventions.
Oromia’s struggle is not a project of domination.
Oromia’s resistance is not based on fantasy or nostalgia.
It is built on belonging, history, demography, culture, and the unbroken moral logic that a people have the right to exist with dignity on their own land. The castle stands because its foundations run deeper than the matches thrown at it.
Those hurling flames are already seeing their own political canopies catching fire. It is always the same: when you burn what is not yours, you end up destroying your own. And when the smoke clears, what remains—charred perhaps, but standing—is the truth that was there all along: Oromia will endure because Oromia is rooted.The rest is noise, fire, and eventually, ash.
A Subtle Truth Told in Insolence
A young Somali man recently remarked with contempt that:
“The Oromo bring milk and eggs to the city” [15].
He meant it as an insult as if Oromos in subservience to the urban Somalis, the only connection they have to the city. But he accidentally exposed one of the deepest economic truths of the Horn:
- Oromia is the breadbasket, the water tower, and the labor engine of the entire region.
- Oromia feeds the Somali Region.
- Oromia feeds Djibouti.
- Oromia supports Somalia’s markets.
- Oromia anchors every major transport route.
- Oromia sustains all the regions of the empire.
To insult the hand that sustains you is not only unwise—it is suicidal.
Why Oromia Is the Only Real Regional Power
Some of the most salient structural advantages that define Oromia’s regional weight are:
1. Resource Power
Oromia holds the region’s largest arable land, water sources, livestock economy, hydro-power potential, and key transportation routes.
2. Geographic Centrality
All major economic corridors pass through Oromia.
3. Democratic Heritage
Gadaa is one of the world’s most advanced indigenous systems of governance—rooted in consensus, rotation, accountability, and Safuu. Oromia does not seek empire. Oromia’s foundation is balance.
The Inevitable Regional Conclusion
Sooner or later, the Horn will confront the truth it has avoided for over a century:
- Only an independent, self-determined Oromia can restore stability to the Horn of Africa.
- Not through force.
- Not through conquest.
- Not through hegemony.
But through:
- food security,
- water security,
- ethical political culture,
- stable trade routes,
- indigenous democratic systems,
- and the moral authority that comes from truth.
Those who burn what is not theirs will drown in their own ashes. Those who rebuild what is theirs will rise higher than before. The burning castle survived because its foundations were real. The flimsy forts burned because they were built on lies.
Oromia will endure because Oromia is rooted. Oromia will lead because Oromia is principled. Oromia will rise because Oromia is true. And in a region of empty ambitions and collapsing fantasies, truth is the only force that outlives the fire.
Ethiopia: A State in Multi-Level Collapse
Before outlining Oromia’s strategic path, one truth must be stated plainly: Ethiopia itself has become a geopolitical quagmire—not a stable center around which strategies can safely orbit. Ethiopia’s crisis is not singular; it is layered, untreated, and compounding:
- The chronic illness: the empire’s unresolved colonial foundation and century-long refusal to confront its internal contradictions.
- The acute illness: PP’s internal civil wars of power retention, waged against its own regions to survive month by month.
- The metastatic illness: regional proxy wars conducted through Amhara Fano, the Somali Region, and not forgetting the recent alliance with Eritrea to attack its own citizens in Oromia and Tigray.
- The degenerative illness: the Tigray war’s unresolved aftermath, the unfulfilled Pretoria commitments, and the simmering resentments they leave behind.
- The genetic relapse: Ethiopia’s return to irredentist attitudes toward Eritrea, rekindling the ghosts of past imperial appetites.
- The external infections: the interventions of Egypt, Somalia, and—most aggressively—the UAE, each injecting instability to secure their own strategic dividends.
- Economic implosion is the next inevitability. A crisis of Ethiopia’s scale—military exhaustion, political fragmentation, fiscal overreach, and social discontent—creates the perfect precondition for rapid economic collapse. The warning signs are already visible: spiraling cost of living, currency degradation, shrinking state capacity, and eroding public confidence. In such conditions, economically weakened regimes do not act as sovereign entities; they become instruments of external geopolitical powers, ruled by dependency rather than autonomy.
The result is a state whose internal physics no longer obey coherent national logic.
- Realignments emerge and dissolve rapidly.
- Former enemies become tactical allies [27,28].
- External actors pick sides not for principle, but for leverage.
Ethiopia no longer behaves as a predictable state [29]. It behaves as a geopolitical fault-line. And Oromia’s strategy must be built with this structural reality in mind.
- Ethiopia is not stabilizing.
- Ethiopia is not consolidating.
- Ethiopia is not healing.
It is fracturing, and the ensuing configuration is unknown—not because analysts lack imagination, but because the system itself has become non-linear. What Ethiopia needs are brave and radical solutions—grounded in a genuine multinational federation at the very least, and without hesitation to consider a peaceful and orderly divorce if that becomes the only viable path [30,31,32].
The notion of a “unitary patchwork,” expected from the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) as a supposed remedy for national unity, is not only disingenuous but dangerously counterproductive [33]. It would simply add yet another opaque layer of crisis, pushed in the exact opposite direction of what the country’s fractures require. This is the landscape Oromia must navigate. And it demands a strategy calibrated for instability, not for illusions of national recovery.
How Oromos Must Position Themselves for the Impending Danger
Given the geopolitical volatility, the internal fragmentation of Ethiopia, and the targeted expansionist pressures surrounding Oromia, a coherent Oromo national strategy must rest upon five pillars. These are not aspirations; they are survival imperatives.
1. Strategic Unity—The First Line of Defense
Fragmentation is the greatest gift Oromia could hand to its adversaries. Unity does not mean uniformity; it means alignment on core existential questions:
- protection of territorial integrity,
- preservation of Oromo identity and political agency,
- recognition of OLF-OLA as the primary organized force resisting expansion,
- and refusal to be divided by PP’s proxy tactics.
A fragmented Oromia is a playground for expansionists. A unified Oromia is an immovable object.
2. Territorial Vigilance—No Vacuum, No Ambiguity
Every expansionist ambition—Amhara Fano, Somali regional elites, PP’s demographic manipulations—thrives on uncertainty. Oromia must adopt a doctrine of territorial clarity:
- clear demarcation of borders in public consciousness,
- historical documentation of indigenous ownership,
- active monitoring of creeping encroachments,
- institutional archiving of evidence, maps, and demographic patterns.
If you do not define your boundaries, others will define them for you.
3. Resistance Doctrine—A Defensive National Posture
Oromia’s struggle is not expansionist; it is defensive. That moral high ground must be preserved, but the defensive posture must be strategically organized:
- asymmetric resilience against proxy forces,
- political insulation against federal manipulation,
- diplomatic articulation of Oromia’s legitimate defensive rights.
In a collapsing state, the force that defends its home responsibly becomes the only credible stabilizer. OLF-OLA is positioned, whether others like it or not, as the backbone of that responsibility.
4. Diplomatic Intelligence—Turning Rootedness Into Leverage
Oromia must communicate its rootedness, not as a sentimental identity claim, but as a geopolitical stabilizer:
- Oromia controls the rivers and water towers.
- Oromia anchors every transport corridor.
- Oromia is indispensable to food security.
- Oromia’s indigenous political culture is inherently stabilizing.
- This gives Oromia unique diplomatic leverage if framed correctly: Oromia is not a risk to the region; it is the region’s last stabilizing constant.
If Oromos do not define this narrative, competing actors will redefine Oromia through their distortions.
Diplomacy must never be confined to international forums alone. As vital as external engagement is, equal attention must be given to regional actors and to our comrades-in-struggle among oppressed nations and nationalities.
Most importantly, a renewed diplomatic ethos must dismantle the petty quarrels and manufactured hostilities that the EPRDF deliberately sowed between Oromia and its immediate neighbors.
5. Preparation for a Post-Ethiopia Horizon
This is the unspoken reality that must finally be spoken without hesitation: Ethiopia may not survive in its current form. Not because Oromos want it gone, but because its internal contradictions have surpassed its integrative capacity. Oromia must therefore prepare for:
- multiple possible future state configurations,
- rapid political realignments,
- sudden vacuum scenarios,
- and the potential fragmentation of the federal center.
Preparedness is not secessionism. Preparedness is wisdom. Whether Ethiopia shrinks, shatters, or reconfigures, Oromia must ensure it is not caught unprepared.
Strategic Summary
In a region consumed by spite, insecurity, and opportunism, Oromia must anchor itself in:
- unity,
- territorial clarity,
- defensive legitimacy,
- diplomatic intelligence,
- and forward-looking strategic preparation.
The burning castle stood not because it was the tallest or loudest, but because its foundations were true. Oromia must now act accordingly:
- Build on foundations deeper than the crises that surround it.
- Plan beyond the structures that are collapsing.
- Stand firm as the region drifts toward uncertainty.
Where others are driven by fantasy or desperation, Oromia must be driven by truth—the one force that outlives fire, outlasts regimes, and outstays the ambitions of the opportunists circling it.
The Central Political Imperative: Resolving the PP Regime vs OLF-OLA Conflict
Taking the full geopolitical picture into account, it is no longer merely imperative—it is an unavoidable national necessity—for the PP regime to resolve its conflict with OLF-OLA. In a moment when external actors, expansionist forces, and opportunistic neighbors are converging on Oromia from every direction, an internal quarrel within Oromia is not only unjustifiable; it is catastrophic.
Oromia cannot endure a bleeding wound inside while carrying the burden of threats outside. A regime that prioritizes internal suppression over collective defense is not defending Oromia—it is weakening it at the very moment unity is existential.
If Ethiopia is entering a period of non-linear fragmentation, then Oromia’s internal coherence becomes the last remaining stabilizing force in the entire region. That coherence is impossible without an immediate political settlement, recognition, and structured engagement with OLF-OLA as the legitimate representative of Oromo resistance.
No doctrine of Oromo survival, no blueprint for peace, and no strategy for navigating the regional storms is credible if Oromia’s most central force is treated as an adversary rather than a national partner. Structured engagement and recognition of OLF-OLA is essential for collective security.
Oromia must anchor itself in unity, territorial clarity, defensive legitimacy, diplomatic intelligence, and forward-looking preparation.
Where others burn out of spite, Oromia must stand on truth. The castle stands because its foundations are real. Oromia will endure because Oromia is rooted. Oromia will rise because Oromia is true.
Selected References
- Felistus Kandia, "Geopolitical Crossroads: The Future of Great Power Competition in Eastern Africa", June 12, 2025, Mashariki Research and Policy Centre.
- Mvemba Phezo Dizolele, Mwachofi Singo, and Hallelujah Wondimu, "Vying for Regional Leadership in the Horn of Africa", February 24, 2025, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
- Micheale Kihishen Gebru, "The United Arab Emirates Engagement in Ethiopia: Implications for the Horn of Africa’s Geopolitical and Security Landscapes", March 2025, Policy Brief 35.
- Long Ding, "The Evolving Roles of the Gulf States in the Horn of Africa", 4 March 2024, Volume 18, Issue 1, Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies.
- Ramadhan, Muhammad Fauzan Rizki (2024) "THE GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM AND THE SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER IN THE HORN OF AFRICA," 18 October 2024, Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional: Vol. 26: No. 2, Pp. 1-24.
- Chanie, T. (2024), The Current Amhara Fano Resistance: Viewed from the Historical Military Tradition of the Amhara People, 28 May 2024, East African Journal of Arts and Social Sciences, 7(1), 326-340.
- Elemoo Qilxuu, How the Educated Elites Lost the Plot as the Tide is Turning: Using Education to Inflame Rather Than Heal , 13 November 2024, OROMIA TODAY.
- Turaa Jarsoo, The Amhara Elite Racist Worldview: Collective Unconscious and Historical Hegemony, 27 June 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Elemoo Qilxuu, The Comedy of Errors: On Mr. Habtamu Tegegne's Extremist Racial Tirade, 3 November 2024, OROMIA TODAY.
- Asafa Jalata, The Ethiopian State: Authoritarianism, Violence and Clandestine Genocide, March 2010, vol.3, no.6, The Journal of Pan African Studies.
- Elemoo Qilxuu, ETHIOPIA'S 6 BIG LIES FUELING ITS IMPENDING COLLAPSE, 13 March 2024, OROMIA TODAY.
- Oli Bora, How a False Unity of Mythical Ethiopia Was Manufactured Through Annexation and Assimilation, 9 April 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Oli Bora, The Myth of Ethiopia’s Historical Continuity: A Political Invention Disguised as Legacy, 17 March 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, Haile Selassie’s Chilling Assimilation Blueprint of 1933 for the Oromo: When ‘Unity’ Meant Erasure, 7 May 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, When Dirre Dhawa Becomes a Claim—And Truth Becomes a Weapon, 4 November 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, A Time Bomb Buried in Oromia and Somali Region, 5 August 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, To Shimelis Abdissa and Caffee Oromia: Your Silence on Moyale Is Betrayal, 27 August 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, To Shimelis Abdissa and Caffee Oromia: Your Silence on Moyale Is Betrayal, 7 August 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, 10 Compelling Reasons Shimelis Abdissa Is Not Effectively Governing Oromia, 30 July 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, Why Abiy Ahmed and the Ethiopian Federal Regime Still Reluctant to Declare Amhara Fano a Terrorist Organization?, 34 October 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- GIULIA PARAVICINI, "A REUTERS INVESTIGATION: In Ethiopia, a secret committee orders killings and arrests to crush rebels", 23 February 2024, Reuters.
- Oli Bora, Leading by Chaos, Not Competence, 4 December 2024, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, The Fearless Obbo Taye Danda'a Arado Interviews, 15 June 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Staff Editor, Obbo Taye Danda'a's BBC Afan Oromo Interview - English Translation Transcript, 10 December 2023, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, An Open Letter to the Caffee Oromia: Fulfill Your Sacred Mandate, 15 May 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, Parliamentary Silence and Collective Cowardice: Shame on Ethiopia’s Parliament and Caffee Oromia for Enabling Atrocity, 2 July 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, The Habesha Axis and the Horn's Tipping Point, 29 Maya 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Olii Boran, A New Abyssinian Alliance in the Making and What it Means for Oromia, 19 March 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Leemman Leeqaa, The Final Goal of Fano Led Amhara Elites and the Resistances They May Face, 18 September 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Yadessa Guma, Why Is No One Talking About the Dissolution of the Ethiopian Empire?, 20 February 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Yadessa Guma, Peaceful Divorce, Shared Future, 4 November 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- Olii Boran, When Power Fears Light: The Parable of an Empire Half-Blind, 6 November 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
- OT Editorial, To the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission: You Are Wasting Your Time and Everyone Else’s, 31 January 2025, OROMIA TODAY.
